Possible scenario
Robotic assault succeeds
40% Chance
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces and Mykhailo Fedorov’s Army of Robots deliver a credible combat assault in which ground robots, drones, and remote fires seize or clear a limited Russian position without Ukrainian infantry entering the assault phase. This is the most likely upside case because Ukraine has already shown tactical use of ground robots around Lyman and has strong incentives to reduce infantry casualties.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- AVAV+3.0%
- TDY+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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