Possible scenario
UK Criminal Case Deepens
25% Chance
The investigation moves primarily through the UK legal system, with prosecutors filing terrorism or national-security charges based on evidence supplied by MI5, Israeli intelligence and US agencies. The story remains serious but localized, producing limited cross-market effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.