Possible scenario
Coordinated Allied Attribution
45% Chance
The most likely path is a coordinated intelligence and diplomatic campaign by the UK, Israel and the US tying the RAF Fairford plot to the IRGC. The response remains below the military threshold, centered on sanctions, expulsions, and security coordination across NATO bases hosting US assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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