Possible scenario
Loan Closes Smoothly
45% Chance
The Department of War finalizes the $1.5 billion facility with security, domestic-production and reporting covenants, allowing Wolfspeed to stabilize operations after its 2025 bankruptcy process. The most likely path is a narrowly positive U.S. semiconductor-industrial-policy event focused on silicon carbide capacity rather than a broad macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- WOLF+10.0%
- ON+1.1%
- COHR+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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