Possible scenario
Step 5 Adoption Breakout
40% Chance
StepFun's 600B-parameter open-weight preview becomes a widely tested flagship among Chinese and international developers. The timing benefits from post-DeepSeek demand for capable, inspectable models and from OpenRouter lowering trial friction.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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