Possible scenario
Open-Model Price War
28% Chance
Step 5 intensifies a Chinese open-weight race that was already accelerated by DeepSeek and AntLingAGI. The most likely financial effect is not a single winner but faster commoditization of inference and model API pricing.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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