Possible scenario
Campaign Keeps Expanding
20% Chance
Despite criticism, the larger U.S. opinion campaign proceeds because the contract has already been increased and pro-Israel donors view Iowa as strategically important. The work broadens to additional Midwestern states where Republican attitudes on Iran are contested.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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