Possible scenario
Coordination Signal Strengthens
20% Chance
Japan follows the denial with clearer language on cooperation with the U.S. Treasury, reinforcing that policy coordination is focused on disorderly FX moves rather than restricting access to yen. This would reduce the probability of a funding squeeze but could keep intervention risk alive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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