Possible scenario
Verified Drone Incident
23% Chance
A new drone violation or strike shortly after the denial would make the intelligence dispute secondary to the operational threat. Given the prior Polish and Romanian incidents in the timeline, this is a material but not base-case escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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