Possible scenario
Denial Contains Alarm
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Macron's denial is treated as a clarification rather than a rupture with Washington. NATO governments keep air defenses on alert, but no immediate corroborating evidence of a near-term Russian drone campaign is made public.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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