Possible scenario
Rapid Cleanup Prevails
45% Chance
Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and AFAD clear flooded underpasses, restore most transport links, and contain the damage within several districts. The death toll remains limited and disruption to tourism, commuting, and logistics fades within days.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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