Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
18% Chance
If Iran's terms are viewed as a stalling tactic or a demand to preserve enrichment capacity, Israel may conclude that diplomacy is buying Tehran time. A renewed strike cycle would lift oil prices, volatility, defense stocks, and credit spreads over the immediate trading window.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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