Possible scenario
Energy Chokepoint Shock
15% Chance
Iran or aligned forces shift from rhetorical punishment to pressure on shipping and Gulf energy infrastructure. Even a limited disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sharply reprices oil risk because a large share of global seaborne crude and LNG moves through the area.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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