Possible scenario
Direct Regional Retaliation
25% Chance
Iran decides that waiting until the war ends would weaken deterrence and launches direct or deniable attacks on Israeli and U.S.-linked targets. The response is serious enough to trigger additional U.S.-Israeli strikes, but both sides still avoid declaring an unlimited war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.