Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Cycle
45% Chance
Iran keeps its threat to punish Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu politically salient but avoids immediate direct attacks on U.S. territory or Israel's core cities. Tehran leans on proxies, cyber operations, and legal rhetoric while waiting for a more favorable moment after the current war phase.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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