Possible scenario
Limited Missile Campaign
30% Chance
Houthis use the new range to sustain pressure on Saudi Arabia and Israel while still avoiding attacks that would guarantee a full-scale regional response. The outcome is disruptive but bounded, with limited damage and increased insurance, aviation, and shipping costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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