Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that the new missile range raises alert levels but does not immediately produce a high-casualty strike. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and U.S. forces increase surveillance and air-defense readiness while Houthis use the capability mainly for coercive signaling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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