Possible scenario
Houthi Counterattack Escalates
15% Chance
The Houthis mount a sharper counteroffensive to reverse the symbolic and operational loss of Mocha. While less likely than a contested stalemate, this remains plausible because the group has recently shown capacity to seize Red Sea coastal territory and threaten shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.