Possible scenario
Coast Remains Contested
30% Chance
The Houthis fail to retake Mocha but keep enough firepower near the coast to make the port and nearby sea lanes unstable. This outcome fits their recent pattern of using missiles, drones, and coastal raids to offset battlefield setbacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.