Possible scenario
Saudi-US Defensive Response
18% Chance
Washington and Riyadh may respond by expanding air-defense coordination rather than launching a major retaliatory campaign. The key variables are whether the US keeps the response defensive and whether Saudi Arabia resumes more visible strikes against Houthi launch sites in Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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