Possible scenario
Continued Airport Attacks
25% Chance
A renewed Houthi campaign against Riyadh airport remains a plausible near-term path because the group has already shown the ability to disrupt operations repeatedly. The likely consequence would be more flight cancellations, tighter diplomatic movement, and modest regional-risk repricing rather than a global market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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