Possible scenario
Contained Security Disruption
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the US restriction remains a precautionary embassy measure while Saudi authorities harden Riyadh airport security. Houthi attacks remain possible, but operations at King Khalid International Airport continue with delays, rerouting, and higher insurance scrutiny rather than a prolonged shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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