Possible scenario
Fed Delay Repriced
45% Chance
Investors treat the September inflation report as evidence that tariff and gasoline pass-through is keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. Markets price fewer near-term cuts, with rate-sensitive equities underperforming and Treasury yields moving higher.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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