Possible scenario
Consumer Stagflation Deepens
20% Chance
The combination of 3.7% inflation and renewed real-wage erosion creates a stagflationary signal for household demand. Investors mark down discretionary spending expectations while credit and volatility indicators move modestly higher.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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