Possible scenario
West Bank Violence Spreads
21% Chance
The arson encourages further settler mobilization and triggers Palestinian protests across parts of the northern West Bank. The risk rises that IDF units become stretched between protecting Palestinians, preventing vigilante attacks, and suppressing clashes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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