Possible scenario
Coalition Legal Standoff
28% Chance
The arson becomes another flashpoint between Israel's judiciary, security establishment, and right-wing coalition ministers. The government formally accepts the court order but slows implementation, citing security conditions and the risk of clashes with settlers.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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