Possible scenario
Managed Alliance Fallout
45% Chance
NATO governments absorb the disclosure through parliamentary hearings, limited document releases, and tighter notification rules rather than a rupture with Washington. The most likely near-term outcome is political damage in Spain, Germany, Italy, and the UK, but continued operational cooperation because Iran remains an active security file.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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