Iran Retaliates Indirectly

Tehran uses the disclosure to justify a calibrated response against US-linked facilities, shipping, or cyber targets while avoiding direct war with NATO. This is a plausible path because the number of missions gives Iran a public pretext to widen pressure without immediately crossing the threshold of a major conventional attack.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.