Possible scenario
Sustained Kyiv Barrage
30% Chance
Russia continues exploiting Ukraine's depleted Patriot inventory and the higher speed of jet-powered Geran/Shahed variants. Civilian infrastructure, emergency medical facilities and power nodes in Kyiv remain the main pressure points.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Tickers
- RTX+1.1%
- LMT+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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