Possible scenario
Sanctions Response
20% Chance
Western governments respond mainly through sanctions, export controls and enforcement against Iranian and Russian drone supply chains. The policy response is visible but not a decisive military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.6%
- LMT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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