Possible scenario
Air Defense Resupply
38% Chance
The repeated strike on a Kyiv operating room strengthens the case for an emergency air-defense package. Washington, Berlin, Warsaw and NATO logistics planners prioritize Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T interceptors to close the gap created by depleted Ukrainian stocks.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- RTX+1.8%
- LMT+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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