Possible scenario
Shipping Disruption Spreads
20% Chance
A follow-on attack or credible warning makes the incident look like part of a sustained campaign against commercial shipping. War-risk premiums jump, some dry-bulk sailings are delayed, and Ukrainian grain and metals exports rely more heavily on Danube and Romanian routes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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