Possible scenario
Institutional Pushback Builds
18% Chance
Congress, inspectors general, courts, or bar authorities respond more aggressively to perceived politicization at DOJ. The backlash creates a sustained public confrontation, but the most likely outcomes remain hearings, records requests, and procedural limits rather than a full constitutional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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