Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
24% Chance
Iran or aligned forces use the aviation incident as justification for a calibrated response against Israel, US positions, or Gulf-linked infrastructure. The most likely escalation remains limited and partially intercepted, but markets price a higher risk of direct Israel-Iran retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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