Possible scenario
Information War Escalates
28% Chance
Tehran uses the hijacking accusation to contest the Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and to pressure Gulf governments. Israel denies involvement, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia face competing demands to release evidence and tighten aviation security.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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