Possible scenario
Contained Aviation Inquiry
36% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and ICAO move quickly to frame the hijacking as an aviation-security incident rather than proof of an Israeli operation. Iran maintains the accusation publicly, but Gulf governments avoid validating Tehran's claim and keep airspace restrictions limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.