Possible scenario
Repatriation Proceeds
45% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the ships complete the handover with limited visible disruption. Malaysia has already started the 5,000-person plan, and Myanmar's military authorities have an incentive to accept the returnees to show administrative control.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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