Possible scenario
Arrival Crisis
20% Chance
A more destabilizing outcome is that returnees face detention, interrogation, or forced recruitment after arrival in Myanmar. Given the post-coup conflict and the military's manpower needs, reports of abuse could quickly draw condemnation from UN officials and ASEAN governments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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