Possible scenario
Offensive Grinds On
45% Chance
Israel continues its Gaza City campaign after reaching 63% control, using air strikes, armored advances, and neighborhood-by-neighborhood clearing operations. Hamas remains degraded but able to conduct ambushes and retain hostages, making a near-term decisive end unlikely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.