Possible scenario
Diplomatic Constraint
15% Chance
Rising civilian casualties and continued urban operations increase pressure from Washington, European governments, the United Nations, and Arab states. Israel may adapt tactics or expand humanitarian corridors without accepting a full ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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