China Shifts Domestic

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

If overseas Blackwell rentals become unreliable, Moonshot and other Chinese AI labs accelerate procurement from domestic semiconductor and cloud ecosystems. The near-term effect is negative for model-training performance but positive for China’s strategic localization push.

What it moves

Technology−0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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