Possible scenario
Turkey Route Reopens
25% Chance
Baghdad and Erbil use the March framework to accelerate northern exports through Turkey's Ceyhan terminal. A partial restart would not replace Basra losses, but it would reduce Iraq's need to dump crude into Asia at extreme discounts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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