Possible scenario
OPEC Manages Supply
20% Chance
OPEC+ avoids a formal quota change but members use allocations and pricing to contain disruption from Iraq's distressed sales. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE become the swing suppliers for Asian refiners that normally buy Iraqi crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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