Possible scenario
Asian Buyers Clear Barrels
40% Chance
Iraq's steep discount succeeds in moving some stranded October barrels despite the Hormuz disruption. Asian refiners with storage, shipping access, and tolerance for logistical risk absorb distressed cargoes, limiting the immediate loss of Iraqi market share.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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