Probe Stays Contained

The most likely path is that Justice Department and Treasury officials treat the matter as a sanctions-compliance case centered on the press secretary's husband and the lending firm, rather than a broader White House scandal. Investigators focus on whether the loan work violated OFAC rules and whether Katie Zacharia had any knowledge or involvement.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.