Possible scenario
Export Controls Tighten
25% Chance
The pledge runs into renewed U.S. security scrutiny because Gulf AI infrastructure still depends on advanced NVIDIA and AMD chips controlled by Washington. The likely outcome is delay and additional compliance requirements rather than cancellation, given the UAE’s wartime alignment with the U.S. and Israel.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.7%
- MSFT-1.1%
- AMD-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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