Possible scenario
Sanctions Retaliation Spiral
25% Chance
Japan responds with additional sanctions or diplomatic expulsions, and Russia answers with reciprocal measures. The economic impact is likely contained, but companies with residual Russia or Sakhalin exposure could see mild pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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