Possible scenario
US Pressures Kyiv
18% Chance
The Trump administration uses Lavrov's claim to argue that diplomacy is being obstructed and presses Kyiv and European capitals to engage more directly with the U.S. plan. This creates visible Western tension and uncertainty over future military assistance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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