Possible scenario
Transatlantic Compromise
25% Chance
The U.S. and major European governments narrow differences over Ukraine security guarantees and the sequencing of sanctions relief. A limited diplomatic opening emerges, though any final settlement still depends on Russian acceptance and Ukrainian consent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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