Possible scenario
Stalemate Persists
45% Chance
Lavrov's statement proves to be mainly diplomatic positioning rather than evidence of a near-term breakthrough. Washington, Kyiv, Brussels and Moscow continue indirect contacts, but disputes over territory, sanctions relief and security guarantees prevent a formal deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.